Maharashtra elections: Independent candidates stir political pot in Nagpur, threatening BJP-Congress dominance

NAGPUR: Perhaps for the first time in the history of Nagpur city's six assembly constituencies, where candidates from two major political parties were always the darling of centuries, these six constituencies are seeing an unusual shift in the dynamics of their elections as 49 independent candidates are going to contest across the six constituencies of Nagpur city. Several strong independents may influence results in at least three of the six seats: Nagpur East, Nagpur Central and Nagpur West.

However, Nagpur South-West stands out in terms of an absolute lack of threats coming in from independent candidates or smaller parties like VBA or BSP.

The contest here is firmly between BJP stalwart Devendra Fadnavis and Congress's Praful Gudadhe.

While this significant independent presence, up from 33 in 2019, poses a challenge to the traditional thumping of the BJP and Congress, it transforms familiar two-way battles into tricky three-way contests in other constituencies. Traditionally, Nagpur had abstained from electing independent MLAs and, in the last 11 election cycles did not experience any independent wins.

But all this changed when some high-profile independent candidates joined the fray, many of whom are former party members or popular community representatives.

With elections scheduled on November 20 and counting on November 23, the rise of independent candidates has put their plans to enforce in this region.

Nagpur Central: A real fight on cards at this center with 11 of the 20 candidates being independent. The big threat for Congress candidate Bunty Shelke is rebel Ramesh Punekar, a representative of the Halba community, who would similarly be a threat to BJP candidate Pravin Datke.

Presence of considerable Muslim and other caste votes and the popularity of Punekar among Halba voters could make the seat contestable and force two major parties to sweat it out.

This time around, the fortunes of fate made a twist in the form of entry by Narendra Jichkar, a Congress-exiled candidate, as an independent candidate for Nagpur West constituency.

An electorate where 10 out of 20 candidates are Independents, and where in general this would have been a one-on-one straight fight between Congress MLA Vikas Thakre and former BJP MLA Sudhakar Kohale, is now facing a three-way race after Jichkar's energetic campaign spree and the popularity he enjoys at the grassroots level has altered the equations to be more fair for Thakre's position as the front-runner.

Adding to the crisis is another independent candidate in the name of Raja Baig who is now focusing on collecting votes from his community. If Baig wins, it will further reduce Thakre's voter base.

Baig recently accused Maha Vikas Aghadi supporters of spreading false information that he had accepted Thakre. Baig outrightly denied this claim and said the MVA supporters were spreading this manufactured news to confuse voters.

While in Nagpur East, 6 out of 17 are independents and Congress rebel Purushottam Hazare has emerged as the front runner. Hazare's decision to contest from here as an independent after his 2019 foray under the Congress banner could split the votes and pose a threat to BJP three-time MLA Krishna Khopde.

The Congress-led MVA move to grant the seat to NCP's Duneshwar Pethe rather than to Hazare might further fragment the opposition vote, presenting an unexpected challenge to Khopde. NCP rebel Ajit Pawar was not going to let that pass. Abha Pande, his rebel-turned-independent candidate added more fuel.

Nagpur North is a reserved seat, but it has 26 contestants. Of these, 11 are independent candidates. A wildcard is BSP candidate Manoj Sangole, who could suck votes away from BJP's Milind Mane and Congress veteran Nitin Raut.

Sangole's popularity had kept party leaders up at nights, worried that he may take away a chunk of the SC vote, which in the past would have been the BJP-Congress fight.

In Nagpur South, of the 22 candidates, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi's Satyabhama Lokhande may be a dark horse. Lokhande had polled around 5,000 votes in the 2014 election and had cut into Bahujan voter for BJP or Congress.

Independent candidates are gaining momentum across Nagpur, which poses an unprecedented challenge to the traditional electoral fortresses of both national parties.

The emergence of independent candidates provides a proof that the once perceived unattainable and deep-rooted disapproval against the better-known political figures is flaring up into a rife discontent, perhaps reeking havoc on the electoral psyche of Nagpur.